The Prime Minister answered the questions of Vesti v Subbotu host Sergei Brilyov.
Dmitry Medvedev's interview to Vesti v Subbotu’s host Sergei Brilyov
Sergei Brilyov:
Mr Medvedev, have you ever paid attention to your aircraft’s license number?
Dmitry Medvedev: Our state company operates more than one plane.
Sergei Brilyov: Perhaps, this one should be added to Wikipedia, because I was told that since 1988 (maybe this is a mistake) this was the only direct Yerevan-Baku flight. It’s a classical example of shuttle diplomacy, as they used to refer to it. We know that you and your colleagues had meetings, but still what is it that Moscow did that changed the minds of Armenians and Azerbaijanis? What exactly couldn’t they agree upon a week ago that they have accepted now when Moscow intervened?
Dmitry Medvedev: Perhaps you are right. One can count direct flights from Yerevan to Baku on the fingers of one hand, which in itself speaks volumes about the level of passions and problems.
You see, after what happened, the most important thing, I believe, was that Russia, as an influential state, a state that has partnership and alliance relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, should do its best to prevent the perpetuation of the conflict. So, President Putin called President Aliyev and President Sargsyan and stated our position. Our position is that escalation must be prevented at all costs no matter what happens, no matter what someone may think. Most importantly, the sides should calm down, stop shooting, call a ceasefire, and sit and talk.
Then other contacts followed. Representatives of the General Staffs (chiefs of staff) did come to Moscow to discuss specific military aspects of the ceasefire. Diplomats started working as well. Since I was planning a special visit to Armenia, it was considered appropriate for me to visit both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and discuss the situation with the leaders of these countries on site, so to speak. I managed to do so, and I now have an understanding of how the events were unfolding and, most importantly, what needs to be done.
Sergei Brilyov: How did you discuss things? Did you study maps with Sargsyan and Aliyev?
Dmitry Medvedev: No, but we knew what we were talking about. I discussed this issue many times, at different venues, but always with the same participants – President Sargsyan and President Aliyev. In total, we probably had about 15 such meetings in the past. Then, we had such meetings with the participation of President Putin and Minister Lavrov, as well as other participants. So we were talking about things that can and cannot be done.
Sergei Brilyov: Last Saturday, our programme aired right after breaking news to the effect, "nighttime, tracer bullets, can’t make any sense out of it." But when the chiefs of staff of Armenia and Azerbaijan went to the General Staff in Moscow, I realised that the Russian satellites captured the troops relocation, meaning that Russia’s top military and political officials came here not only to discuss politics, but also brought evidence to the effect that, such as here we can see your troops go here, and your troops go there. Is that how it was?
Dmitry Medvedev: It is no longer possible to conceal anything. Even in the past, the truth about different events surfaced sooner or later. Now the situation on the ground is obviously monitored both by satellites and other control systems. But this is not the main point. The main thing in such situations is not to show the alignment or who has moved forward, and not even to sum up the sad consequences, although this is a very grave and complicated issue. The main point is to demonstrate the need to calm down and stop the fire. This is exactly what Russian representatives were doing and I’m glad they achieved this. At any rate, now that we are talking, the ceasefire has been announced and is upheld. There may be just single shots but for justice’s sake let’s admit that they occurred before as well. But there are no large-scale hostilities with heavy weapons, artillery and everything else that was used here before.
Sergei Brilyov: Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I see two potential problems here. One is at the bottom – when political leaders came to terms but some commander has a nervous breakdown because he’s been sitting in a trench and looking at the enemy through the sights for more than a week or month, if not a year.
The second problem is the external factor. Not all Azerbaijanis and Armenians will agree with this. Many believe they belong to Europe rather than the Greater Middle East. But such a term exists.
Dmitry Medvedev: This is not our term.
Sergei Brilyov: No, it isn’t. Nevertheless, everything that is happening in the South Caucasus is so close to Syria even geographically and to the great successes achieved by Russian weapons and diplomats there, everything is so close to Turkey (in fact both countries border on Turkey) that one is bound to ponder the following question: how do these developments tally with the Syrian settlement and the problems with Turkey that Russia has, for one?
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, I am not an advocate of conspiracy theories, but I can say the following: The nature of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is known to everyone and has been studied well. What we are observing now is the continuation of what emerged in the past. But this doesn’t mean that this conflict is developing in a vacuum when only two sides are locked in the conflict. Sometimes it becomes hot and is accompanied by military operations with human losses and so on.
Obviously, the environment affects the general situation, the mood of people and decision-making. Every country has people with different views on the possibilities of settling this conflict. I’m referring both to decision-makers and to those who are simply following the developments. There are a number of forces that are attentively monitoring the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its ramifications in the Middle East and Russia, as well as vice versa, i.e. how the processes unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa affect Nagorno-Karabakh. As a matter of fact, all these conflicts boil down to political decisions in one way or another. For this reason, it is not impossible that this conflict is also influenced by external factors. You have mentioned the Turkish factor. It is probably real, if only because Turkey has spoken out on this issue.
Sergei Brilyov: They have called Russia a party to the conflict.
Dmitry Medvedev: They did.
Sergei Brilyov: It was Erdogan who said it.
Dmitry Medvedev's interview to Vesti v Subbotu’s host Sergei Brilyov
Dmitry Medvedev: Yes, you are absolutely right. Instead of calling for calm and returning to the negotiating table, instead of promoting talks and a ceasefire, he delivered a trenchant assessment of the situation. What for? Did he want to add oil to the fire? Well, this is what I call a troubling development.
Sergei Brilyov: Mr Medvedev, last Saturday, we have already noticed that Moscow was the first to react to the escalating situation. It seems that Vienna, where the OSCE headquarters are located, is in the same time zone (well almost, since there is a difference of one hour), but the statement by the OSCE, the Council of Europe and other capitals was several hours late. What happened over the last week tends to prove that Moscow is the interlocutor of choice for both Baku and Yerevan.
I’m not trying to say that the OSCE is unable to perform its duties or anything like this, but it is obvious that Moscow has some kind of preference. And it shows. Our present conversation is set in Baku, where you have arrived from Yerevan. What is there in Moscow for our partners in Armenia and Azerbaijan that they are unable to find in the OSCE framework in Vienna?
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, there’s nothing complicated about that. Russia’s relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan date back centuries. We have established special, historical ties, and have gone through one of the periods in our history together in a single state. Today, we are operating with respect to each other as partners. We just happen to live side by side, and many people from Armenia, as well as from Azerbaijan work in Russia. This goes to say that the contacts between our countries are multidimensional to such an extent that when situations like this one emerge it is natural for our colleagues to turn to us for help and support, for mediation that Russia has always been and remainscommitted to. Russia is restrained in its role in this particular situation, as our countries are so interconnected.
Sergey Brilyov: Mr Medvedev, I’ll take the responsibility now, maybe even at the risk of quarrelling with my kind friends – luckily, I have many of them both in Yerevan and in Baku. This is my personal opinion but I think that such conflicts like this one in Nagorno-Karabakh should be better frozen… Let two, even better three or four generations pass. In this case, it will be possible to discuss how to resolve it when there are no fresh memories of what happened. As far as I know, there are people who adhere to a contrary view among those with whom you talked in Yerevan and Baku. They think the conflict was frozen for a long time and it is time to make decisions? What do you answer them?
Dmitry Medvedev: Indeed, we discussed this topic. Everyone wants to take part in resolving the conflict and changing the situation. Many politicians quite rightly see this as their responsibility to future generations. They want to pass on to them a resolved rather than frozen conflict. The problem is that this conflict, just as any other, may be resolved in a completely definite way, and any method of resolving it will suit some people and will not suit others. So if you are asking me to choose between the frozen conflict - that is a renunciation of its early resolution – and the value of human life that is brought to the altar of its resolution, I will still choose the latter. It is better to preserve the current situation than spill blood.
Sergey Brilyov: As it happened this week with dozens of victims at once…
Dmitry Medvedev: As it happened this week.
Sergei Brilyov: Perhaps a final point. On the backdrop of what is going on, what has happened (let’s hope the ceasefire will hold), will Russia continue supplying arms both to Armenia and to Azerbaijan?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, Russia is a partner for both states.
Sergei Brilyov: For Armenia, it is also a CSTO ally.
Dmitry Medvedev: For Armenia, we are also a CSTO ally. However, ours are interstate relations. They are based on agreements, including agreements on military and defence technology cooperation.
So, if we imagine for a moment that Russia has abandoned this role, we understand that nature abhors a vacuum. They will buy weapons in other countries and this will not make these weapons any less lethal. But at the same time, this can to a certain degree disrupt the balance that exists now, as we understand our partners’ needs and everyone understands the lineup of forces in the region.
Therefore, I am not sure that the advent of other arms suppliers to this market will help improve the situation. I believe this situation will most likely become even more complicated.
Sergei Brilyov: Are you saying that, at present, indeed, Russia sees this balance and sees a situation where (except for last week’s incidents) Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to think twice as to whether or not to open hostilities? Because the effect will be far too serious, considering what kind of weapons they have? In other words, sufficient military capability keeps them away from conflict?
Dmitry Medvedev: I believe that weapons can and should be acquired not only to be used but also to be a deterrence factor, and this is what all parties to a conflict should think about.
Sergei Brilyov: Thank you, Mr Medvedev.
Dmitry Medvedev: Thank you.
