Dmitry Medvedev’s opening
remarks:
In September we’ll review the forecast of socio-economic
development in a broader format – first at a meeting of the Commission on Budget
Projections and then at a Government meeting.
Meeting on the socio-economic development forecast for the Russian Federation for 2015-2017
The main priorities remain the same. We’ll fully fund all of our commitments to the citizens of Russia and will continue strengthening our defence capability and security, including economic security.
Our goal is to draft the most realistic budget considering our difficult economic circumstances. I’m referring to the sanctions against Russia and restrictions on its access to capital markets. Many Russian companies are being denied access to new technology, and there are plenty of other bans in the works.
The scenario we approved last May was different from what we are seeing in the papers prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development for this meeting. There has been an obvious change for the worse.
Dmitry Medvedev: "Our goal is to draft the most realistic budget considering our difficult economic circumstances."
First, the forecast for annual economic growth rates has been downgraded. Projected GDP growth for 2015 has been reduced from two to one percent, and some slowdown is expected also in 2016 and 2017. The forecast for GDP growth this year has hovered around 0.5 percent.
Second, the figures on inflation are also more challenging. The forecast for 2015 is a six percent increase in inflation and a decline in the pace of income growth.
Third, the estimate of labour productivity growth is more modest. The goal is to increase productivity by 50 percent by 2018 compared to 2011. We’ve recently approved a plan of measures to this end, but there are some complications and a need for adjustments.
There is good and bad news in agriculture as well. The restrictions we have imposed have opened up new opportunities for developing our domestic market.
We should
pay attention to the pricing policy of infrastructure monopolies. This is a very
sensitive issue and a lot depends on it.
Dmitry Medvedev: "The goal is to increase productivity by 50 percent by 2018 compared to 2011."
After the Government prepares a draft budget, it will be discussed in detail in parliament and eventually submitted for final approval by the President. Right now I’d like to ask all of you to realistically assess the current situation. It is very important to balance the budget and its items.
