Konstantin Kosachyov: Good morning and welcome to The Voice of Russia radio station. I am Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the Federal Agency for CIS Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) and the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Relations with the CIS Member States.
As usual, we are going to discuss key recent developments in Russia and the world. Undoubtedly, the key event for Russia and probably for the whole world last week was the visit to Russia by the Inspection Commission of the Bureau of International Expositions (BIE).
Maybe not all of you will realise the scale of the event, but the mission that came to Russia will determine the venue and fate of the next universal exposition, Expo 2020.
Our competent and certainly very interesting guest today is Arkady Dvorkovich, Deputy Prime Minister, member of the Government Presidium, a former Presidential aide and before that head of the President’s Expert Directorate, a well-known economist, footballer, chess player, father of two childrenand, I repeat, a man who is thoroughly conversant with the issue we are going to discuss in this programme.
Arkady Dvorkovich is the head of the organising committee for the Russian bid to host Expo 2020 in the city of Yekaterinburg. Thank you for coming. I know you are an extremely busy man, and yet you are here with us in the studio. Welcome.
Arkady Dvorkovich: Good afternoon.
Konstantin Kosachyov: I am sure the conversation is going to be interesting for all our listeners. Many may be wondering why there is such fierce competition for hosting this kind of event. You can understand why there is competition for hosting massive, spectacular events like the Olympic Games s or the World Cup football championships. But why do countries consider it so important to host these kinds of exhibitions?
Arkady Dvorkovich: World exhibitions have been held since 1851, that's more than 150 years. Traditionally it's a really big event for people who can visit the exhibition and spend several days looking at new developments, technologies, beautiful stands and shows presented by dozens of countries.
Russia has been taking part in these events from the start, but it has never hosted one itself. As to why it is no less interesting than an Olympic Games or the World Cup, world exhibitions last not three or four weeks, like major sporting events, but several months, actually half a year. That means not thousands, but millions or even tens of millions of people can visit them.
Getting this chance, making a Russian city a magnet for millions of people from Russia and abroad would be a huge slice of luck and a chance we would hate to miss out on. Countries are competing for this opportunity because it gives a boost to the infrastructure and attracts worldwide attention. The World Bureau of Expositions already embraces 162 countries, a huge audience, almost as many countries as are members of the United Nations. And of course this is an opportunity to show ourselves to the world.
Competition this year is very tough. In addition to Yekaterinburg there is Sao Paolo, Brazil’s biggest city, Izmir, a major Turkish city, Dubai, a famous holiday resort and financial centre, and Ayutthaya, Thailand’s ancient capital. All are very strong competitors who are very keen to host Expo 2020. The most recent exposition took place in Shanghai and the next one will be in Milan. There are also thematic expositions, the next one to be held in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Konstantin Kosachyov: I understand that thematic expositions are held in between the universal ones?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Yes.
Konstantin Kosachyov: And the universal ones are held once every five years?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Yes.
Konstantin Kosachyov: Why do you think our country has never hosted an Expo? If I am not mistaken, there was such a project in Soviet times in the 1960s, but we withdrew our bid at the last or last-but-one stage. There was also one attempt in the post-Soviet era, when Moscow submitted a bid.
Arkady Dvorkovich: That was in 2001.
Konstantin Kosachyov: How do you account for the somewhat lukewarm attitude of our predecessors? Is it the high costs involved, the risk of not living up to the occasion because you host an Expo and are unable to hold your own against your rivals or partners? What is the decisive factor here?
Arkady Dvorkovich: I think it is always about big politics. A country decides whether or not to bid based on a whole range of its political interests and its readiness to promote them. You have to get the votes, and now there are alreadymore than 80 countries, to gain an at least 50% majority at the General Assembly. In former times, fewer countries were members of the BIE, first there were 50, then 90. As a rule, it was a club of European and American countries, mainly OECD members.
Konstantin Kosachyov: And these were usually the countries that hosted the expositions?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Yes, the Soviet Union was somewhat distanced from that category of countries. I think it was politics that prevented it from gaining enough support for hosting the exposition. Moscow bid in the beginning of the 21st century, in 2001, to host the 2010 Expo. But it was outbid by Shanghai, a very strong candidate.
I think that after the crisis of the late 1990s we simply didn't have the credentials for hosting an exposition of such stature from every point of view: in terms of state resources, state support and the readiness to put all our goods in the shop window. We had no experience in presenting all our potential.
If you look at the history of our bids for the Olympics, the world or European football championships, we had to bid several times before we managed to get them. We were gaining experience, learning how to do things from our partners, rivals and leading specialists. As for the world exposition, we also took a long time learning, but now we have experience and we hope it will help us to win, although we cannot claim that our chances are better than those of other cities.
Konstantin Kosachyov: When Moscow lost to Shanghai in 2001 many believed (whether rightly or wrongly is not for me to judge) that Russia had not invested enough in the project in terms of organisation, intellect and, not least, financially.
I read in a Russian magazine that to boost its bid, China, among other things, increased its embassy staff in each of the 162 countries by five people, whose task was to lobby the Chinese bid for Expo 2010 day and night. How does Russia organise its work?
Arkady Dvorkovich: At that time there were not 162 but just over 90 countries, but anyway, five people in each of 90 embassies can make a difference. Promoting the bid calls for both financial and administrative resources which must be fully tapped to promote our interests in every area.
The financial resources include preparation of presentations, inspection visits, like now, trips to various countries to meet high-ranking officials, making the case that we can host the exhibition better than the others can. That is not an awful lot of money, but still it’s money. Small countries cannot afford that so they are unlikely to host such expositions.
We have some kind of representation in all these countries, and that's a big plus. Kazakhstan, for example, found it much harder to lobby for its thematic exposition because there are many countries in which it has no representative offices. Nevertheless, it won the exhibition by visiting every country and committing all its resources and skills.
Our work is organised in the following way. There is the bid organising committee, an assigned team financed jointly by the federal budget, the Sverdlovsk regional budget and private donations from businesses operating in the Urals region and interested in seeing the exhibition being held in Yekaterinburg. These people prepare the necessary materials, hold consultations and travel to various countries.
In addition, during every visit and international meeting at any level, from the President, the Prime Minister to Government ministers, the issue of support for Yekaterinburg as the venue for Expo 2020 is raised. I am sure that other leaders, our rivals, are doing exactly the same thing.
It is a question of persuasion, political weight, and intensive economic, cultural and other links with as many countries as possible. Russia has many such links, but I think it will need still more if it is to win. We have to mend fences with some countries and create an atmosphere of trust, foster economic interest in trade, investment and other areas of cooperation.
Konstantin Kosachyov: I can confirm that the system I’ve been put in charge of, Rossotrudnichestvo, has been mobilised to promote the Russian bid at all our centres abroad. Expositions for this purpose have been or are about to be mounted. Everything will be done to mobilise public opinion in favour of the Russian bid.
The next question that naturally comes to mind is the venue. No questions arose when the bidder was Moscow, because it is our country’s capital. But why Yekaterinburg? Did it have rivals during the candidate selection stage within Russia?
Arkady Dvorkovich: On the one hand, you always want to select the capital, that seems easier. On the other hand, any capital presents organisational challenges, above all logistical ones. It seems to have everything that's needed, but the problems of transport and accommodation are so daunting that countries usually choose not to hold the Expo in the capital.
Another argument is the wish to develop other centres within a country. We have the same argument. We are pursuing it consistently. We hold all sorts of events – sporting and political – in various cities across the country. The examples of Sochi, Kazan and Vladivostok immediately spring to mind. Russia-EU summits have been held in Khabarovsk, Khanty-Mansiisk and Rostov-on-Don. Yekaterinburg has been the venue for BRICS and SCO summits. Preparations for these events gradually develop the infrastructure of the host cities and improve them.
Yekaterinburg has long set its sights on Expo, but so has Nizhny Novgorod and at the final stage Krasnoyarsk showed an interest. It took us a lot of time, consultations with business people and at the political level, with the Prime Minister and the President before selecting Yekaterinburg.
The main reason why we chose Yekaterinburg was that by that time much of the infrastructure needed for hosting such a big event was already in place. The airport had practically been completed and several world-class hotels, such as the Hyatt and Ramada, had been built. That was something we could show – not an empty field or plot of land or talk about our plans to build this and that – but showing what we have done already.
This was Yekaterinburg’s main trump card. Otherwise, of course Yekaterinburg and Nizhny Novgorod are two great Russian cities and they both have a chance of bidding successfully to host a world exposition.
Yekaterinburg has some extra attractions because it straddles the border between Europe and Asia, and we trot out this argument to our partners, colleagues when we tell them about this city. It has elements of various cultures. That said, other cities have their own pluses. Nizhny Novgorod has the Volga River and it is also a place known worldwide. All things considered, Yekaterinburg was chosen: a city of 1.5 million people with rich industrial, cultural, scientific and educational traditions.
Konstantin Kosachyov: As I see it, the BIE inspection commission which visited Russia last week does not have the final say, it prepares reports that are then studied by the member states. But the delegation visited Yekaterinburg, it went to Sochi, and met with the Russian President. It held talks with the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister and other ministries concerned.
The very fact that the programme included such high-level meetings shows that Russia attaches great importance to the project. As for Yekaterinburg, what did you have to show to the inspection commission? I understand that no practical preparations for Expo have started because there is as yet no decision?
Arkady Dvorkovich: That is true, the BIE inspection commission spent five days in Russia last week. Its task was twofold. The first was to make sure, and then explain to the General Assembly delegates that Yekaterinburg meets all the requirements the International Bureau sets for hosting exhibitions. I think our other candidates have also tried to put their best foot forward. That is an admission ticket for the right to bid. And secondly, to make sure that there is unqualified political support for the event. Both tasks have been fulfilled.
I think by showing the existing infrastructure in Yekaterinburg, the proposed area of 500 hectares on a picturesque bank of Verkh-Isetsky Pond, and the city’s sights we managed to convince them that all the requirements will be met. We had to explain why we think that enough tourists would come to Yekaterinburg.
Konstantin Kosachyov: How many visitors do you expect if everything goes according to plan?
Arkady Dvorkovich: We expect about 12 million, which means more than 30 million visits because every person will be able to visit the exhibition 2-3 times. That is a large number, certainly as many as our rivals can muster.
As for political support, the fact that meetings were held with the President, the Prime Minister, the heads of parliamentary parties, the Federation Council speaker, and key ministers proves that the political support is there. The talks that were held add weight to this support, which I think the inspectors had ample chance to see. All the meetings were marked by a very high professional standard and enough time was given to questions and answers. I think the guests came away with a generally positive impression. But I repeat, this is only an admission ticket to the real competition. I hope we will get it, and then we will lobby all the 162 countries that will be voting.
Konstantin Kosachyov: It is well known that all major international events are planned with an eye to the legacy of these events being used by the city and the country. On the other hand, such expositions as Expo are known to be largely temporary affairs: countries come, put up their pavilions (everybody knows the Eiffel Tower story) and then everything disappears again. What about Yekaterinburg’s plans, what impact will holding Expo 2020 have on our country in the 2030s-2050s?
Arkady Dvorkovivh: In fact if it hosts the Expo Yekaterinburg will get a new major district which will comprise exhibition and recreational space, residential and hotel complexes. All this would add up to a modern beautiful district in one of Russia’s biggest cities.
Yes, the temporary pavilions will be removed, though some of them may be used as functional premises in various places, if not in Yekaterinburg then in adjacent areas because these are basically boxes that can serve as warehouses or whatever. It is what is inside, not outside, that matters.
Some pavilions are always designer-built, especially by big countries and they stay in their original shape for a long time. The exposition may change and the function may change, but the look of the building remains the same and the building becomes a kind of trademark for the city that hosted the world exposition.
It will be the same in Yekterinburg. The chosen site is convenient for comfortable medium-class (not high-end) housing, for business quarters and for recreation, because it is on the banks of a lake. That is important. I think there will be a beautiful waterfront, and it will be a popular place of recreation for people in the Urals area.
Konstantin Kosachyov: Have any financial assessments been made? Is the project expected to recoup its costs for our country, or will it be just an investment? For example China spent about 60 billion dollars on the Shanghai Expo. How much is Russia planning to invest in the project? And how much of that money will be recouped?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Such calculations can only be very rough because the costs may or may not include the costs that would have to be incurred anyway. For example, Yekaterinburg airport is being modernised and expanded. Is that to be included in the costs of Expo? Of course not, it is the cost of the airport, the transport infrastructure which the city needs in order to develop, to host the FIFA World Cup and Expo, if it comes to Yekaterinburg.
The same goes for transport routes, the railway station, embankments and roads. We could also cite some impressive figures, but we are not doing that because we do not believe that they are directly connected with the holding of the world exposition.
Some costs are directly connected with the exposition: these include preparing the site, building the pavilions and operational costs incurred during the exposition. We estimate that will cost about $2 billion, which is over 60 billion roubles at the current exchange rate. That money will come from various sources, from budgets at different levels.
We consider these expenditures to be worthwhile and we expect that they will be repaid. The profit will not be very high, but by about 2022 we are planning to turn a profit thanks to the use of all the infrastructure created for the Expo. Part of the returns of course will go to the International Bureau of Expositions, but a part will be kept by Russia. Thus the project is not conceived as loss-making, it will help the city to develop and it will not be hard on taxpayers.
Konstantin Kosachyov: Several of the latest Expo rounds have seen the host countries choose some overarching theme. For example, in Shanghai it was the urban environment as a comfortable human habitat. Does Russia have such an overall theme or concept, and if so, how competitive is it compared with the ideas of other bidders for Expo 2020?
Arkady Dvorkovich: The main idea of our bid and I hope our future exposition is the idea of global reason, the pooling of the world's intellectual resources, the intellect of various civilisations, cooperation of the global intellect in tackling global challenges and in understanding what globalisation is, what it leads to, what challenges it presents to us and how we can respond to them. We proposed the theme Global Reason. We believe it will be of interest for everyone.
We place special emphasis on developing countries, and very poor countries, on involving them in the world exposition movement, more active cooperation with them and bringing them into our orbit. We will walk the extra mile for that and introduce a 125 million euro programme of support for developing countries (this is our commitment).
The money will be spent to ensure these countries’ participation in the world exposition so that they can discuss together with us the way forward, how to develop, how other countries should help them to develop, what are the most effective forms of support, how to do so without harming the environment, how to ensure access to quality medical care and education in the whole world and not only in developed countries.
Konstantin Kosachyov: What is the procedure for making the final decision? When will it be made? What are the options there?
Arkady Dvorkovich: The inspection commission which was here last week will prepare a report for the BIE Executive Committee and for the General Assembly. The report will be considered in June 2013. All the bid teams and committees will be present at the Assembly and will make additional presentations of their bids in the middle of June.
Once it is decided that the bids meet the BIE requirements, full-scale lobbying will begin, and it will last from June to November. The vote at the BIE General Assembly will take place in late November 2013.
The system is the same as in choosing countries to host any other events: you have to get more than half the votes. If no one gets more than half in the first round, the country which gets the least number of votes drops out of the race. Voting is repeated for the remaining countries until one country wins more than half of the votes.
Konstantin Kosachyov: Is voting secret?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Yes, 162 people vote.
Konstantin Kosachyov: I imagine that even at this stage it is possible to assess the strength of a country’s bid and how many votes it can count on. Does Russia have such an idea? Do we have a chance on the eve of the first selection round?
Arkady Dvorkovich: We believe all the bids are very strong and we have very high regard for our partners. Any of the countries can win, but we believe we have every chance to pass several rounds of voting. I don’t think anyone will win outright in the first round. I hope we will make it through to the final round when everything will be decided.
Konstantin Kosachyov: I am sure the final decision will be to our satisfaction. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I agree with you 100% that state support for the project has been amply demonstrated and the objective circumstances – the state of the Russian economy, the Expo geography, Yekaterinburg’s unique location – all this gives natural advantages that warrant our hopes for success.
You are in charge of many other important national projects, including the reciprocal Russia-Netherlands years in 2013. We had mutual years with Germany last year, and Poland and Great Britain are coming up, and now it will be with the Netherlands. How important is that project for Russia? What do we expect from these kinds of programmes?
Arkady Dvorkovich: Reciprocal years are a tradition we share with our main partners, and Holland is one of our main investment, trade and cultural partners. Reciprocal years give a chance to step up cooperation in all areas. Both countries hold a large number of joint events in different areas: economic, cultural, sporting and political.
There will be a chance to hold discussions at our main forums, notably at the StPetersburg Economic Forum. The Year will officially start with the Russian President’s visit to Holland on April 8 when he will meet with the Dutch Queen and Prime Minister, and will be able to demonstrate our interest in cooperation with Holland. We hope to attract Dutch investment and the Dutch look forward to our investments and a significant growth in bilateral trade.
Konstantin Koschev: And in the context of our conversation we hope that Holland will vote for our bid for Expo 2020.
Arkady Dvorkovich: Yes, of course, every vote counts.
