The document was drafted by the Ministry of Economic Development in accordance with Presidential Executive Order No. 596 of May 7, 2012 On Long-Term State Economic Policy. It makes provision for the creation and modernisation of high performance jobs, accelerated development of the high-tech and science-intensive sectors of the economy, improvement of investment activities and the business climate, increased labour productivity and achieving social development objectives.
The document has been drafted taking into account the provisions set out in the 2012 Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and the Policy Priorities of the Government of the Russian Federation up to 2018.
The forecast highlights three basic long-term development scenarios: a conservative, an innovative and an accelerated development scenario.
These scenarios are based on the assumption that the trend of the globalisation of the markets will persist until 2030 with global trade showing high rates of growth, a narrowing income gap between developing and developed countries, while the forecast of the price of Urals oil factored into these scenarios is quite conservative (91-110 dollars per barrel in 2013-2030 in real terms in 2010 prices).
The main features that set these scenarios apart are the scope of Russia’s economic modernisation, assumptions with regard to possible budgetary constraints and demographic forecasts.
Under the conservative scenario, the modernisation effort will focus on the fuel and energy sector and commodities, to the detriment of non-military high-tech and medium-technology sectors of the economy. This modernisation model would be largely driven by importing technology and practices.
Annual GDP growth rates are expected to average 3%-3.2% in 2013-2030, and fixed asset investments would climb 4.7%. Russia’s share of global GDP would fall from 3.8% in 2012 to 3.6% in 2030.
The innovative scenario outlines more investment-oriented economic growth on the back of the creation of a modern transport infrastructure, competitive high-tech production capacities and the development of a knowledge-based economy, while modernising the fuel and energy complex.
Under this scenario, innovation factors are expected to become key drivers of economic growth. A breakthrough in improving the efficiency of human capital is expected to be achieved in 2020-2022, which would have a positive impact on the social aspects of development.
Annual GDP growth rates are expected to average 4%-4.2% in 2013-2020, fixed asset investments would rise 5.9%, while Russia’s share of global GDP would reach 4.3% by 2030.
The accelerated scenario is characterised by the mobilising of all economic growth drivers and accelerating reforms for improving the business climate, actively tapping national savings, higher government spending on developing the social, energy and transport infrastructure, creating a large-scale non-oil and gas export sector and a substantial inflow of foreign investment.
Annual GDP growth rates are expected to average 5%-5.4%, and fixed asset investments would surge 8.2%. Russia’s share of global GDP would reach 5.3% by 2030.
However, this scenario carries a higher risk of creating macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, corporate debt would soar to 119% of GDP by 2030 (up from 78% under the innovative scenario), while household debt would reach 65% of GDP (as opposed to 52% of GDP under the innovative scenario).
The forecast for Russia’s long-term socioeconomic development up to 2030 serves as a basis for devising long-term strategies and other state strategic planning documents.