Question: Mr Fyodorov, how realistic are the requests and suggestions from farmers regarding increasing per-hectare subsidies?
Nikolai Fyodorov: They are 100% realistic, no question about it. First, the President and the Prime Minister spoke about the need to increase the so-called per-hectare or unrelated support. Second, when reviewing this new tool, even though this issue is related to the WTO requirement, all experts agreed that per-hectare support is much more progressive, fairer and more transparent than any benefits in kind, be it fuel, fertilizers or pesticides. Every time you deal with benefits, you end up with abuses or some dishonest people who start looking for ways to catch some fish in troubled waters, as they say in Russia. Therefore, we hope that the per-hectare support will increase, for sure.
First, an increase in subsidies is part of the state programme, but we want to speed up the per-hectare support, and the country's leadership understands this. Second, as we change the tools for providing additional support to farmers, we expect to get a more objective picture with regard to the size of the cropland. I’m sure you are aware that there are vested interests who are motivated to hide the size of their cropland and the kinds of crops that are planted.
The second argument in favour of per-hectare support is that the higher the yield and the intensity of farming (as stated in the Government resolution in accordance with the law), the more funds one can expect to receive from the federal and regional budgets. That’s another issue that has to do with hiding objective information, no matter how strange it may sound. If you are getting a good yield, you can show it and get more funds. However, according to the experts, farmers are hiding anywhere from eight to ten million tonnes of grains and cereals, while other experts say it is three to five million tonnes. I’m not sure why they are doing this. Perhaps they don’t trust the authorities and prefer to hide a portion of their crops in order to avoid requisitioning of surplus produce, as they did in the 1920s, or any other action by the state.
Therefore, I'm sure that we are on the right track. All farmers who have been working with the per-hectare support acknowledged how convenient it is in the very first year.
By the way, thanks to the per-hectare support they receive, honest farmers don’t have to borrow as much money (loans are more complicated and costly). That support comes in the form of cash, and they can use it as they see fit – buying fertilisers, crop protection products, or fuels and lubricants for farm equipment…
Question: Are you going to adjust your crop forecasts somehow? We hear that in two regions, crop estimates have now been revised down.
Nikolai Fyodorov: We monitor all regional forecast revisions, and we are going to analyse their estimates. In keeping with current regulations, they are subject to further assessment by federal government agencies, including the Emergencies Ministry, the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, and so forth. All this will be additionally confirmed.
Based on the results of today’s session, the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has reiterated its previous harvest estimates of 90-94 million tonnes. The Grain Union, which lives and breathes this topic, estimates the forthcoming harvest at 94-97 million tonnes. While the Agrarian Market Studies Institute’s forecast is 91-92 million tonnes.
We work in cooperation with industry executives to monitor, on a daily basis, regional crop forecast adjustments, including by the two regions you’ve just mentioned. As of today, there is, indeed, a threat of poorer quality crops owing to unfavourable weather conditions. But, as you may have noticed, some regions say the latest rainfall has also improved the situation somewhat, at least as far as spring crops are concerned. This is why we’ve left our estimates intact so far.
Question: How much grain can we hope to export, given the current weather conditions?
Nikolai Fyodorov: With our general estimates remaining within the previously established range, we’re likely to harvest at least 50 million tonnes of wheat (wheat is the crop you tend to be particularly interested in, don’t you?). That’s our pessimistic estimate. Other experts say that the amount may reach 54 million. Considering our domestic needs, we could export as much as 20 million tonnes.
Question: Does this apply to wheat or all types of cereals?
Nikolai Fyodorov: All cereals.
Question: Does the Agriculture Ministry have any targets for winter crop sowing areas?
Nikolai Fyodorov: Yes, it does. Our target is around 15 million hectares, normally. This year we’ve got 14.7 million, following a check on the demise of winter crops (you know how much has survived). Next autumn, we’re planning to get at least 16 million hectares sowed with winter crops, and that’s the target we’ve set for the regions.
In the longer term, our ambition is to have winter crops spread over an area of 20 million hectares. In this case, we’ll be better protected in terms of crop losses and unfavourable weather, because, as you know, winter crops – especially wheat – provide the most reliable crops. To us, this is very important in terms of prioritising as well as fostering the national agricultural headquarters’ cooperation with the regions. Those of the governors who have chosen to expand their winter cropland are better protected. This is a result of the agreements we’ve signed with the regions in an effort to expand winter crops.
Thank you.
